Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#46
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#21
Pace68.4#142
Improvement-0.3#181

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#81
Improvement+1.4#95

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#35
Improvement-1.6#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 43.3% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.8% n/a n/a
Second Round46.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen13.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight4.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.3% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 7 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 339   Bryant W 75-63 99%     1 - 0 -7.2 -9.6 +2.2
  Nov 12, 2011 232   Southern Utah W 70-37 92%     2 - 0 +25.7 -6.7 +31.6
  Nov 13, 2011 322   UC Davis W 89-74 98%     3 - 0 -0.7 +5.5 -6.6
  Nov 15, 2011 11   @ Baylor L 67-77 19%     3 - 1 +8.2 -5.0 +14.1
  Nov 17, 2011 219   USC W 56-54 92%     4 - 1 -4.5 -3.9 -0.3
  Nov 19, 2011 39   Long Beach St. W 77-73 OT 58%     5 - 1 +10.6 -4.1 +14.1
  Nov 23, 2011 47   @ Arizona W 61-57 37%     6 - 1 +16.1 -3.3 +19.5
  Nov 26, 2011 110   @ UC Santa Barbara W 76-75 OT 55%     7 - 1 +8.5 -2.1 +10.6
  Nov 30, 2011 28   Creighton L 83-85 54%     7 - 2 +5.8 +3.2 +2.8
  Dec 04, 2011 34   California W 64-63 56%     8 - 2 +8.3 -0.2 +8.6
  Dec 07, 2011 224   @ San Diego W 74-62 79%     9 - 2 +12.1 +7.3 +5.9
  Dec 19, 2011 268   UC Riverside W 80-55 95%     10 - 2 +15.4 +15.7 +2.2
  Dec 22, 2011 261   Elon W 81-55 94%     11 - 2 +16.6 +0.6 +15.1
  Jan 10, 2012 332   Chicago St. W 73-65 98%     12 - 2 -9.8 -7.2 -2.8
  Jan 14, 2012 26   UNLV W 69-67 52%     13 - 2 1 - 0 +10.2 -3.6 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2012 14   @ New Mexico W 75-70 21%     14 - 2 2 - 0 +22.3 +19.1 +3.7
  Jan 21, 2012 173   Air Force W 57-44 88%     15 - 2 3 - 0 +9.2 -8.3 +19.5
  Jan 24, 2012 75   @ Wyoming W 52-42 45%     16 - 2 4 - 0 +20.1 -2.7 +24.6
  Jan 28, 2012 72   @ Colorado St. L 60-77 44%     16 - 3 4 - 1 -6.8 -13.5 +7.1
  Feb 01, 2012 134   Boise St. W 58-56 82%     17 - 3 5 - 1 +0.9 -13.4 +14.5
  Feb 04, 2012 143   TCU W 83-73 84%     18 - 3 6 - 1 +8.3 +9.8 -1.2
  Feb 11, 2012 26   @ UNLV L 63-65 27%     18 - 4 6 - 2 +13.0 +0.4 +12.5
  Feb 15, 2012 14   New Mexico L 67-77 43%     18 - 5 6 - 3 +0.5 +2.6 -2.4
  Feb 18, 2012 173   @ Air Force L 56-58 71%     18 - 6 6 - 4 +1.0 -8.1 +8.8
  Feb 22, 2012 75   Wyoming W 67-58 OT 70%     19 - 6 7 - 4 +12.3 +6.6 +6.7
  Feb 25, 2012 72   Colorado St. W 74-66 70%     20 - 6 8 - 4 +11.4 +4.5 +7.6
  Feb 29, 2012 134   @ Boise St. W 66-53 61%     21 - 6 9 - 4 +18.7 +2.5 +17.7
  Mar 03, 2012 143   @ TCU W 98-92 OT 64%     22 - 6 10 - 4 +11.1 +6.9 +3.1
  Mar 08, 2012 134   Boise St. W 65-62 73%     23 - 6 +5.3 +1.4 +4.3
  Mar 09, 2012 72   Colorado St. W 79-69 57%     24 - 6 +16.8 +12.3 +5.5
  Mar 10, 2012 14   New Mexico L 59-68 31%     24 - 7 +4.9 -4.1 +8.8
Projected Record 24.0 - 7.0 10.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
9-5
8-6
7-7
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 100.0% 99.8% 99.8% 6.8 0.0 0.2 7.3 35.8 34.4 17.9 4.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.8%
9-5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 6.8 0.0 0.2 7.3 35.8 34.4 17.9 4.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.8%